Market forecast

Driven by the growing demand for berries in China, the market is expected to maintain an upward consumption trend over the next decade. Market performance is projected to accelerate, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of +22,8% for the period 2024-2035, which is projected to reach 4,7 million tons in market volume by the end of 2035. In value terms, the market is projected to grow at an anticipated CAGR of +12,4% for the period 2024-2035, which is projected to reach $13,7 billion (at nominal wholesale prices) by the end of 2035.

Consumption

Berry Consumption in China In 2024, approximately 488.000 tons of berries were consumed in China, representing a 28% increase year-over-year. Overall, consumption continues to show significant expansion. During the analyzed period, consumption peaked in 2024 and is expected to grow steadily in the near future. The berry market in China soared to $3.800 billion in 2024, up 32% year-over-year. This figure reflects the total revenue of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailer margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). Overall, consumption continues to show significant growth. During the analyzed period, the market peaked in 2024 and is expected to maintain its growth in the coming years. Consumption by type Strawberries (4,1 million tons) were the product with the largest consumption volume, accounting for 89% of the total volume. Moreover, strawberries exceeded the figures recorded by the second largest type, cherries and sour cherries (487.000 tons) by eight times. Blueberries and cranberries (36.000 tons) ranked third in terms of total consumption, with a share of 0,8%. Between 2013 and 2024, the average annual growth rate of strawberry consumption was +4,9%.

Regarding other products consumed, the following average annual growth rates were recorded: cherries and sour cherries (+19,2% per year) and blueberries and cranberries (+27,6% per year). In terms of value, strawberries ($10.500 billion) led the market. Cherries and sour cherries ($3.700 billion) came in second place, followed by blueberries and cranberries. Between 2013 and 2024, the average annual growth rate in the strawberry market value was +8,1%. Regarding other products consumed, the following average annual growth rates were recorded: cherries and sour cherries (+19,2% per year) and blueberries and cranberries (+30,7% per year).

Production:

Berry production in China reached a total of 17.000 tons in 2024, representing a 2,4% increase year-over-year. Overall, production maintains a relatively stable trend. As a result, production reached its peak volume and is likely to continue growing in the short term. Berry production in China showed a relatively stable trend, largely driven by a relatively stable trend in harvested area and yield figures. In value terms, berry production decreased slightly to $52 million in 2024, estimated at export price. During the analyzed period, total production showed resilient expansion between 2013 and 2024: its value increased at an average annual rate of +5.5% over the past eleven years. However, the trend showed notable fluctuations throughout the analyzed period. According to 2024 figures, production decreased by -7.7% compared to 2021 indices.

The pace of growth was most pronounced in 2014, when production volume increased by 41%. During the period analyzed, production peaked at $57 million in 2021; however, between 2022 and 2024, production remained at a lower level.

Production by type

Strawberries (4,1 million tons) were the largest product by production volume, accounting for approximately 99% of the total volume. Cherries and sour cherries (36 tons) followed, with a 000% share of total production. In third place were raspberries and blackberries (0,9 tons), with a share of less than 906%. Between 0,1 and 2013, the average annual growth rate in strawberry production volume was +2024%. For other products, the following average annual growth rates were recorded: cherries and sour cherries (+4,9% per year) and raspberries and blackberries (+0,8% per year). In terms of value, strawberries ($5,1 billion) led the market. Cherries and sour cherries ($11.100 million) came in second place. They were followed by raspberries and blackberries. Between 107 and 2013, the average annual growth rate in the value of strawberry production was +2024%. Other products recorded the following average annual growth rates: cherries and sour cherries (+9,1% per year) and raspberries and blackberries (+2,4% per year).

Imports

China's berry imports

Soft fruit imports to China soared to 490.000 tons in 2024, a 30% increase over 2023. Overall, imports continue to show significant expansion. The most notable growth rate was recorded in 2016, when imports increased by 85%. Imports peaked in 2024 and are likely to continue growing in the near future. In value terms, soft fruit imports soared to $3.900 billion in 2024. Overall, imports registered significant growth. The pace of growth was the fastest in 2014, with an 81% increase over the previous year. Imports peaked in 2024 and are likely to experience gradual growth in the coming years.

Imports by country

In 2023, Chile (339.000 tons) was the largest supplier of berries to China, accounting for 90% of total imports. Furthermore, berry imports from Chile exceeded the figures recorded by the second largest supplier, Peru (25.000 tons), by more than ten times. Between 2013 and 2023, the average annual volume growth rate of Chilean imports was +26,3%. The other supplier countries recorded the following average annual import growth rates: Peru (+332,8% annually) and the United States (+3,9% annually). In terms of value, Chile (US$2.600 billion) was the largest supplier of berries to China, accounting for 89% of total imports. Peru ranked second (US$229 million), with a 7,8% share of total imports. Between 2013 and 2023, the average annual growth rate in the value of Chile's imports was +26,0%. Other supplier countries recorded the following average annual growth rates: Peru (+327,1% annually) and the United States (+1,4% annually).

Imports by type

In 2017, cherries and sour cherries (102.000 tonnes) were the largest berry type supplied to China, accounting for 89% of total imports. Moreover, cherries and sour cherries exceeded the figures recorded by the second most important type, blueberries and cranberries (12.000 tonnes), eight times higher. Strawberries (48 tonnes) ranked third, with a share of less than 0,1%. Between 2013 and 2017, the average annual growth rate in the volume of cherry and sour cherries imported was +28,4%. The other products supplied recorded the following average annual growth rates: blueberries and cranberries (+49,3% per year) and strawberries (+539,4% per year).

In terms of value, cherries and sour cherries ($771 million) constituted the largest berry type supplied to China, accounting for 88% of total imports. Blueberries and cranberries ($104 million) came in second, accounting for 12% of total imports. They were followed by raspberries and blackberries, with a share of less than 0,1%. Between 2013 and 2017, the average annual growth rate in the value of cherry and sour cherry imports was +26,8%. The other products supplied recorded the following average annual growth rates: blueberries and cranberries (+57,6% per year) and raspberries and blackberries (+154,0% per year).

Import prices by type

The average import price for berries stood at $7.668 per ton in 2017, representing a 58% increase over the previous year. However, overall, import prices maintained a relatively stable trend. During the period analyzed, average import prices reached historic highs of $8.142 per ton in 2014; however, between 2015 and 2017, they remained lower. Significant differences were observed in the average prices of the main products supplied. In 2017, the highest-priced products were raspberries and blackberries ($21.192 per ton), while strawberries ($5.149 per ton) were among the lowest. Between 2013 and 2017, the most notable growth rate in terms of prices was recorded by raspberries and blackberries (+26,5%), while the prices of other products experienced more modest growth rates.

Import prices by country

In 2023, the average berry import price reached $7,723 per ton, a 3% increase year-over-year. However, during the analyzed period, the import price maintained a relatively stable trend. The steepest growth rate was recorded in 2017, when the average import price increased by 58% year-over-year. The import price peaked at $8,142 per ton in 2014; however, between 2015 and 2023, it remained at a lower level. Average prices varied slightly among the major supplier countries. In 2023, among the major importers, Peru had the highest price ($9122 per ton), while the United States price ($6738 per ton) was among the lowest. Between 2013 and 2023, Chile saw the most notable growth rate in terms of prices (-0,2%), while the prices of other major suppliers experienced a decline.

Exports

China's berry exports

In 2024, the amount of berries exported from China soared to 18.000 tons, a 68% increase year-over-year. During the period under review, exports experienced a significant increase. The pace of growth was most pronounced in 2023, with an increase of 182%. During the period under review, exports peaked in 2024 and are likely to experience gradual growth in the short term. In value terms, soft fruit exports soared to $64 million in 2024. Overall, exports registered significant growth. The most notable growth rate was recorded in 2014, when exports increased by 200% year-over-year. Exports peaked in 2024 and are expected to maintain this growth in the short term.

Exports by country

Vietnam (7.100 tons) was the main destination for berry exports from China, accounting for 65% of the total. Furthermore, berry exports to Vietnam tripled the volume sent to Russia (2.100 tons), the second largest destination. Hong Kong SAR (577 tons) ranked third in terms of total exports, with a 5,3% share. Between 2013 and 2023, the average annual growth rate of the volume exported to Vietnam was +58,5%. Exports to the other main destinations recorded the following average annual growth rates: Russia (+11,5% per year) and Hong Kong SAR (+175,4% per year). In terms of value, Vietnam (US$12 million), Russia (US$6,5 million), and Hong Kong (US$5 million) appeared to be the largest markets for berries exported from China worldwide, together accounting for 80% of total exports. Hong Kong SAR, with a CAGR of +170,4%, recorded the highest growth rate in export value among major destination countries during the period under review, while shipments to the other leading countries experienced more modest growth rates.

Exports by type

Strawberries (15.000 tons) were the largest berry type exported from China, accounting for 82% of total exports. Strawberries also accounted for six times the volume of the second-largest product type, blueberries and cranberries (2.600 tons). Third place in this ranking was taken by raspberries and blackberries (504 tons), with a 2,8% share. Between 2013 and 2024, the average annual growth rate in strawberry export volume was +30,5%. Regarding other exported products, the following average annual growth rates were recorded: blueberries and cranberries (+39,8% per year) and raspberries and blackberries (+246,8% per year). In terms of value, strawberries ($34 million), blueberries and cranberries ($23 million), and raspberries and blackberries ($5,6 million) were the most exported berry types from China globally, together accounting for 98% of total exports. Raspberries and blackberries, with a CAGR of +250,7%, recorded the highest growth rates in export value among the major product categories during the period under review, while shipments of other products experienced more modest growth rates.

Export prices by type

The average export price of berries stood at $3.504 per ton in 2024, a 29% increase over the previous year. During the analyzed period, the export price showed notable expansion between 2013 and 2024: its price increased at an average annual rate of 7,2% over the last eleven years. However, the trend showed notable fluctuations throughout the analyzed period. The growth rate was fastest in 2014, when the average export price increased by 73% compared to the previous year. The export price peaked at $3.727 per ton in 2021; however, between 2022 and 2024, it remained at a slightly lower figure. Prices varied significantly depending on the type of product; The highest-priced product was raspberries and blackberries ($11,172 per ton), while the average price of strawberry exports ($2,280 per ton) was among the lowest. Between 2013 and 2024, the most notable growth rate in terms of prices was recorded for cherries and sour cherries (+4,3%), while the prices of other products experienced more modest growth rates.

Export prices by country

In 2023, the average berry export price was $2,719 per ton, a decrease of -16.9% year-over-year. Overall, the export price showed a significant increase between 2013 and 2023: its price increased at an average annual rate of +5.2% over the past decade. However, the trend showed notable fluctuations throughout the analyzed period. According to 2023 figures, the berry export price decreased by -27.1% compared to 2021 indices. The most significant growth rate was recorded in 2014, with a 73% increase. The export price peaked at $3,727 per ton in 2021; however, between 2022 and 2023, it remained slightly lower. Prices varied significantly depending on the destination country: among the major suppliers, the country with the highest price was Singapore ($10.355 per ton), while the average price of exports to Macao SAR ($551 per ton) was among the lowest. Between 2013 and 2023, the most notable growth rate in terms of prices was recorded for supplies to Russia (+7,4%), while prices for the other major destinations experienced more modest growth rates.