The relationship of blueberry Chilean trade with the Chinese market no longer operates under the same logic as in previous seasons. Although the destination remains important, price behavior, early competitive pressure, and the earlier trade closure have changed its role within Chile's export strategy.

In his market analysis, Gonzalo Salinas, Senior FAR Analyst at Rabobank, shows that China no longer offers the same room for maneuver as before and that, therefore, it requires a more precise commercial reading within the current map of destinations.

China no longer offers the same closure for Chile

Salinas argues that China no longer occupies the prominent place it held a few seasons ago in the Chilean calendar. That market no longer provides the same opportunities for [the sport/trade]. blueberry Chilean and Chile, in fact, has been progressively withdrawing from that destination.

The change is significant. For several years, China appeared as an attractive outlet for some Chilean exports at the end of the season. Today, however, that period shows a different dynamic and requires closer monitoring of market developments.

Peru enters earlier and prices react faster

One of the keys to this change lies in how the market responds to volume. Salinas observes that, in the last season, prices fell very quickly due to Peru's earlier presence, altering China's usual dynamics.

This is compounded by the effect of higher volumes in months like October, November, and December, when the market reacted strongly to the available supply. This combination of increased competition and greater price sensitivity narrows profit margins and makes Chilean participation in that market more demanding.

Gonzalo Salinas at the XL International Blueberry Seminar Chile 2026 © Blueberries Consulting

The campaign closing period was shortened

Another change that stands out in their analysis is the earlier end of the season. While in previous seasons prices could continue to be reported even until the end of March, today that period has shortened considerably, with some seasons practically ceasing to appear by the end of January.

This adjustment not only changes how prices are read. It also alters the end-of-campaign strategy, because it leaves less room for maneuver and forces a more precise review of what blueberry It is sent, at what time and under what expectation of return.

Gonzalo Salinas at the XL International Blueberry Seminar Chile 2026 © Blueberries Consulting

China is still on the map, but with a different role

China hasn't disappeared from the radar, but it no longer exhibits the same behavior as in previous seasons. Salinas suggests that this destination requires a different approach and, therefore, a different way of integrating it into the company's commercial strategy. blueberry Chilean.

Meanwhile, Europe and the United States are showing more favorable signs for Chilean exports, albeit within a tighter competitive landscape. This comparison doesn't eliminate China from the equation, but it does redefine its place in the export calendar and strategy.

China remains a market to watch, but it's no longer the comfortable end to the line as in previous seasons. With more volatile prices, an earlier presence from Peru, and a shrinking calendar, the task now involves re-evaluating this market with greater precision and better understanding how the trade landscape for Chilean blueberries is reshaping.

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