The EastFruit team continues its analysis of the global blueberry market. After analyzing overall global blueberry trends and the situation in two giants: Peru and Chile, we decided to analyze the most aggressive new exporters, and now we return to the blueberry giants. This time, we analyze the situation and outlook for blueberries in two of the main exporting countries that supply two of the main consumer markets: Mexico, which exports to the US and Canada, and Spain, which supplies the EU.

Mexico has quickly become one of the world’s leading blueberry exporters, primarily serving the U.S. and Canadian markets. In 2022, Mexican fresh blueberry exports totaled 71,509 metric tons, only slightly down (2%) from the previous year (Mexico: Blueberry Annual Voluntary | USDA Foreign Agricultural Service). By 2023, Mexican production reached an estimated 74,800 MT, a 12% year-over-year increase, thanks to new plantings and production innovations that boosted yields, according to USDA estimates. The same source estimates that 2024 production reached 81,000 MT (an 8% growth), although expansion is slowing somewhat as Mexico faces fierce competition from Peru in global markets. Indeed, Peruvian exports during the winter months have invaded Mexico’s traditional window of opportunity, which used to enjoy high prices in early spring. However, Mexico remains indispensable, especially for supplying fresh blueberries to the U.S. market during the shoulder season, which is winter and spring, before the U.S. domestic harvest arrives.

Nearly 97% of Mexico's blueberry exports are destined for the United States, reflecting geographic proximity and a favorable trade framework under the USMCA/NAFTA. Mexican berries can reach U.S. retail shelves within days (or even hours for those trucked to Texas/California), giving them a freshness advantage over South American fruit that must be shipped by sea. This has allowed Mexico to maintain a strong seasonal supply position, primarily from January through April, and again in late fall.

In recent years, Mexican exporters have also begun to diversify into other markets on a limited basis (small volume trials have been conducted in Europe and Asia), but the United States will remain the dominant buyer until 2030. Per capita blueberry consumption in the United States continues to rise, offering Mexico an increasingly attractive market. Notably, U.S. imports of fresh Mexican blueberries complement the U.S. domestic harvest; in fact, Mexico imports around 20,000 metric tons of blueberries in winter, likely from Peru or Chile, demonstrating that Mexico is both an exporter and a redistribution point.

Mexico's climate and production system allow for continuous production in certain regions (e.g., the central Mexican highlands and Baja California). The industry has invested in protected crops, such as shade nets and tunnels, and in growing media to extend the season and protect against inclement weather. However, water availability can be an issue: droughts have affected farmers in some areas, although the 2023/24 season saw sufficient water for an expanding harvest. As a result of these investments and natural advantages, Mexico's production is expected to continue to increase moderately each year. Projections suggest that Mexico could reach annual production of 90,000–100,000 metric tons by the end of the decade, translating into perhaps 70,000–80,000 metric tons of exports if domestic consumption also grows slightly.

An obstacle for Mexico is the global pricing environment With the presence of Peru, which has increased the abundance of blueberries, the growth rate of Mexican exports has slowed. However, innovation and quality improvement are fundamental to Mexico's strategy. The industry has quickly adopted improved varieties, often through partnerships with global berry companies like Driscoll's, resulting in improved size and flavor profiles. Post-harvest handling This is another key aspect: given the short transit time, Mexican berries tend to arrive very fresh, which represents a competitive advantage as long as quality is maintained.

In short, Mexico will remain among the three main exporters globally, even despite the new tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, and will be the central axis of the North American supply outside the American season While it may not match Peru's exponential growth, the Mexican blueberry sector is on a solid and sustainable growth trajectory through 2030, driven by strong U.S. demand.

Spain: Europe's leading producer navigating market pressures

Spain, in particular the province of Huelva in Andalusia , is the driving force behind European blueberry production. Over the past decade, the area planted and production of blueberries in Huelva have expanded rapidly, making Spain one of the world's leading exporters of fresh blueberries. In the 2024 season, the area planted with blueberries in Huelva reached approximately 3.744 hectares , a 4% increase over the previous year. Blueberries have become Huelva's second most important berry crop (after strawberries), reflecting their economic importance. In recent seasons, Spanish blueberry production has been in the order of more than 60.000 tonnes  Annual. Production in Spain is likely to continue to grow for the 2023/24 season, thanks to the contribution of surface area and improved yields.

In fact, Huelva reached a Record 1.100 billion euros in soft fruit exports in the first 7 months of 2024 ( Huelva reaches a record €1.100 billion in berry exports, dominating the Spanish market. ). This suggests a healthy export volume, as blueberry prices in Spain have been under pressure recently (more volume is needed to reach that value).

The market window and Spain's strategy is different from that of New World exporters. Spanish blueberries are harvested from late winter to spring; the first small volumes may appear in November/December (of early varieties under hoops), but the significant volume increases between March and May.

Varietal diversification has allowed Spain to start the harvest earlier, gaining competitiveness against South American productions that supply Europe in winter. However, Spain is facing increasing competition in spring by third countries, especially Morocco and, to a lesser extent, countries like Portugal and southern Italy. In fact, Morocco's blueberry season overlaps considerably with Spain's, and Moroccan exports to the EU have experienced strong growth. Morocco ships from January to April, with a peak in February/March.

This coincidence caused a situation of Oversupply in spring 2022 , when the convergence of harvests in Spain, Morocco, and other countries caused an 18% drop in the average selling price of Huelva blueberries. Spanish producers are well aware of this market dynamic. Historically, Spain enjoyed good prices for early spring blueberries, but profitability is now lower. For example, at the beginning of the 2024 season, Spanish blueberries arrived on the market in small volumes at very high prices due to limited supply. However, as Morocco and other countries ramped up production, prices normalized.

To remain competitive, Spanish producers are focusing on the quality and length of the season Huelva growers have adopted many new cultivars supplied by international breeding programs to target the flavor and firmness attributes sought by European supermarkets. Experiments have also been carried out with evergreen production techniques in temperate areas to try to extend the harvest even further into winter. Even so, natural climatic limits mean that Spain's main crop will continue to focus on spring. As for exports, Europe itself is the main market for Spanish blueberries. Germany, the United Kingdom, France, the Netherlands, Italy, etc. Germany and the United Kingdom are the main importers of Huelva berries, with demand from the United Kingdom notably strong after Brexit. The United Kingdom now imports more from Spain, as it has fewer complications sourcing directly from the EU.

Spanish blueberries remain mainly in Europe, often via the Netherlands. Transatlantic exports are relatively limited, as Spain cannot compete in the North American market due to delivery times and costs. However, a new horizon has emerged. the opening of Asian markets : Starting in 2023, China has approved the import of Spanish blueberries, which could offer an outlet for some fruits in the future.

In the future, Spain aims to maintain its position as Europe's leading producer , but growth may moderate. Limitations include the availability of land and water in Huelva (a region facing water stress) and the aforementioned competition. There has been some consolidation in the sector: cooperative groups such as Onubafruit lead the production with tens of thousands of tons ( Onubafruit, the leading berry producer in Spain – Blueberries Consulting ). The focus for 2025-2030 will be on efficiency and cost control Rising costs for inputs such as labor, energy, and fertilizers in Spain have squeezed margins, and producers are pushing for innovations to reduce costs. For example, labor shortages are emerging as fewer seasonal workers travel to Spain, so mechanized harvesting of late-season blueberries is being tested.

The macroeconomic context of inflation in Europe could also moderate demand for premium berries in the short term. Even so, blueberry consumption in Europe is growing steadily, and Spanish producers are well positioned to meet this demand at competitive prices. Spanish production is expected to be between 60.000 and 70.000 tons annually, and any future expansion will likely come from yield improvements or new areas in the north, rather than large acreage increases. Spain will remain a fundamental pillar of the European blueberry supply every spring, striking a delicate balance between opportunity and competition in a saturated market.