The Peruvian campaign of blueberries The harvest has been revised downward several times in recent months. The projected year-end harvest fell from 404 tons in August to 344 tons in October, a reduction of about 60 tons, or approximately 15%, according to Proarándanos.

The sixth projection from the trade association places exports of blueberries Fresh production for the 2026/27 season is projected at 344 tons, 6,1% less than the 366 tons forecast at the beginning of October and 10,3% below the 383 tons exported during the previous season, despite Peru having around 15% more hectares in production.

The adjustment comes as the Peruvian government warns that El Niño-related conditions could continue to put pressure on various crops towards the end of the year, including the blueberry.

A campaign with successive adjustments

Proarándanos' estimates have been decreasing as the campaign progresses and new information from producers and exporters is incorporated.

The closing projection was 404 tons in August, dropped to 382 in September, fell to 366 at the beginning of October and was subsequently adjusted to 344 tons.

Up to week 40, Peru had exported 163,5 tons, 4,5% more than in the same period of the 2025/26 season. However, the advantage over the previous year was rapidly reduced: by week 38 it reached 18,7%.

The change is also reflected in the peak production window. The export peak was around 30% lower than the previous season, and between weeks 41 and 53, Proarándanos projects volumes 24,7% lower than those recorded in the same period of 2025/26.

Proarándanos also noted that recent weather conditions have affected the phenological development of the plantations and that this part of the campaign presents greater uncertainty due to rainfall patterns.

Midagri warns of possible new pressures towards the end of the year

In this context, the Ministry of Agrarian Development and Irrigation of Peru (Midagri) anticipates a possible reduction in production of blueberries, in addition to grapes, mangoes and lemons, towards the end of 2026.

Minister Marco Vinelli noted that the Government is monitoring agricultural conditions, although it does not yet have indicators to estimate the magnitude of any potential additional impact.

“There may be some impact, but we don’t yet have an indicator that it’s a significant impact,” Vinelli stated in an interview with the digital program Siempre a las 8, of El Comercio.

The statement refers to the future evolution of production and does not in itself modify the adjustments already recorded in the export forecast for the campaign.

The Coastal El Niño continues to be monitored

The scenario coincides with the Coastal El Niño Alert maintained by the Multisectoral Commission in charge of the National Study of the El Niño Phenomenon (ENFEN).

The agency predicts that the warming off the Peruvian coast could continue at an extraordinary level until January 2027. For the remainder of 2026, it also anticipates above-normal rainfall on the northern and central coast, with possible localized episodes of moderate to heavy intensity, mainly in the north.

These conditions provide context to the development of the campaign, although they do not allow us to automatically attribute each adjustment of exported volumes to El Niño or to estimate a homogeneous impact on all producing areas.

Production and exports are not the same indicator

The Midagri warning refers to agricultural production, while Proarándanos' estimates correspond to exports of blueberries fresh. Both indicators are related, but not equivalent.

The volume exported also depends on the proportion of fruit that meets commercial requirements, the harvest schedule, and the progress of export programs.

For now, Midagri has not quantified how much production could specifically decrease. blueberries nor which regions would be most affected. Proarándanos, meanwhile, has reduced its export projection by about 60 tons since August and will continue to update its estimates with new information from the season.

The evolution of the coming weeks will allow us to observe whether the weather conditions generate new adjustments in the Peruvian supply during the final stretch of the season.

Read also

• Miguel Bentín at Fruit Attraction 2026: “The peak of the Peruvian blueberry will be equal to or less than predicted”
• Luis Miguel Vegas: Peru doubles blueberry production, but El Niño forces cautious projections
• Ica and Piura lead the growth of Peruvian blueberry production in August
• More supply, more demands: Cort Brazelton analyzes the new blueberry scenario at Fruit Attraction 2026
• IBO World Blueberry Forum: More supply, less margin for error, the blueberry changes scale at Fruit Attraction 2026