For Ukrainian apple and blueberry growers, the logistics of supplying products to the Asian and African markets is not technically a problem, but unfortunately they lose their cost to their main competitors. With this in mind, manufacturers must focus on the quality of their products. Andriy Yarmak, economist of the investment department of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), expressed this opinion during the webinar “Fruit and berry crops: protection technologies and new opportunities”, which took place on February 4 and was hosted by Bayer in Ukraine, writes EastFruit.

Only marketing allows you to earn money; Before selling products, manufacturers only bear the costs.

Making his presentation on global apple and blueberry trends, Andriy Yarmak pointed out that fruit and vegetable growers need to understand that until the moment they sell their products, they only have expenses, after that, be it profit or loss. .

“That is why marketing is the main thing. Therefore, it is worth professionally monitoring what is happening with the market. In addition, it is necessary to highlight several main factors of such observations. First, you need to monitor the demographic situation of the world because the more people live in a particular country, the more food they need.

Second, people will buy products if they have money. Therefore, the economic situation and the dynamics of the population's income level should be closely monitored.

Third, you need to pay attention to whether this or that region of the world can grow its own products, whether it has the necessary resources for this: land, water and climatic conditions. Otherwise, this country can be a strategic customer.

Fourth, logistics is an essential factor: is it technically possible to deliver goods to this country, and what will the cost of logistics be relative to the retail price of goods in this country?

Growing consumer markets: Africa and Asia; a demographic crisis in Europe

Andriy Yarmak advised paying attention to the world in the context from which most of the new consumers of horticultural products are born. The leaders here are the countries of the African region. At the same time, the population of Europe tends to decline; Today, it is the only region in the world that has a negative demographic situation.

“According to the UN forecast, in 2020-2030, the annual population growth in African countries will be 35 million people, in Asia, 33 million. If we look at the world demographic panorama, we can say that every year a new Germany appears in the world because every year the population grows by 78 million people. Unfortunately, this 'Germany' is much poorer because the main population growth occurs in low-income countries, ”Andriy Yarmak said.

Suppose we add economic issues to demographics and then, according to the FAO Investment Department economist, we must take into account an indicator such as the region's share of per capita GDP. The richest region for this indicator are the countries of North America, mainly the United States and Canada.

“The countries of Europe are twice as poor, and in the countries of Asia and Africa, the situation is the worst. However, it should not be thought that Asia and Africa are not interesting markets for horticultural producers. After all, if we analyze an indicator such as the expected growth in food demand, considering the demographic situation and the economy as a whole, we will see that 45% of the growth in world demand will occur in Asian countries. In other words, Asia remains the most promising region for potential fruit and vegetable exports from Ukraine, ”said Andriy Yarmak.

China loves apples, although this fruit hardly grows in Southeast Asia

Simultaneously, speaking of the worst conditions to increase apple production, Andriy Yarmak pointed out that they have been developed in Southeast Asia, where it is almost impossible to grow this fruit, given the climatic conditions. However, China provides 90% of apple consumption in this market.

Furthermore, poor apple production conditions are found in sub-Saharan Africa, except in South Africa and neighboring countries, in the Middle East and North Africa. European, Turkish and Iranian apple suppliers work in this market, so competition is not easy either.

“The rest of the world, which is promising in terms of consumption, can successfully grow apples. Thanks to the acceleration of the reproduction rate, the acreage of apples is increasing ”, said the FAO economist.

Growing indoor blueberry cultivation will create competition for southern hemisphere countries

If you look at the global outlook for blueberry cultivation, according to Andriy Yarmak, they exist in almost all regions of the world. “And this is bad news for those who are delighted with the profitability of this berry. The first commercial blueberry plantations have already appeared even in the United Arab Emirates. In addition, countries in the warmest regions of the world have every opportunity to supply blueberries in winter. However, the growth of indoor blueberry cultivation in Northern Hemisphere countries will create competition for Southern Hemisphere countries in the future, ”said Andriy Yarmak.

In his speech, the FAO economist also addressed logistical issues in the export of blueberries, noting that Ukrainian producers should pay attention to the possibility of supplying products by sea transport. As world blueberry prices decline, blueberry aviation logistics will become a thing of the past, except possibly large premium berries.

If the rate of imports into the market does not grow, it means that new players will have to "knock out" someone from the market.

Andriy Yarmak also said that Asia and Africa are world leaders in increasing imports of vegetables and fruits: the annual growth of this indicator in the countries of these regions is 11,4 and 8%, respectively. "Why is it important to pay attention to this indicator? Because if imports do not grow or decrease, then this suggests that when entering this market, it will be necessary to "knock out" someone from it, "said the specialist.

According to Andriy Yarmak, if we talk about import indicators in monetary terms, Asian countries annually increase imports of fruits and vegetables by $ 3.7 billion. It's a great indicator because Ukraine exports fruits and vegetables, even nuts, worth only $ 300 million a year. - that is, ten times less than the annual growth in demand in Asia!

Countries in Europe follow Asia: annual growth in imports to this region is $ 2,3 billion, and this despite negative demographics. The reason is that the production of horticultural products in Europe is declining (expensive land, expensive labor, decreased land available for cultivation, etc.), all these are the main reasons for growth.

The increase in imports of vegetables and fruits to African countries is small: only 200 million dollars a year. However, it is still there. And the growth rate of imports is high, around 8% per year. Simultaneously, the region has excellent opportunities to increase its own production. We are hearing more and more about new large-scale cultivation projects, for example blueberries in the most unexpected corners of the African continent.